1 August 2026
Three factors in determining Ethereum's recovery to be sustainable
Despite the recent crypto downside, Ethereum's recovery is still underway, with price holding near the $2000 level. Over 85% of ETH HODLers seem to be profitable at the current price level.
Though there was a drop in large transactions last week, there was $193.39 Billion worth of large transactions on the Ethereum network. Even if the on-chain sentiment remains bearish, the inflow of investment in Ethereum makes it likely that the recovery will initiate soon.
Reason 1
![[resize output image]](https://im3.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-3-b49dfd2bdabb.png)
Since Ethereum was overleveraged and the longs led Ethereum's price to plummet. Based on the above chart, the average daily volume of ETH futures is below $70 Billion since May 19, 2021. As the volume is consistently lower than the peak hit on May 19, it is likely that the recovery is underway.
Reason 2
![[resize output image]](https://im3.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-3-c80e64735f83.png)
Daily volume of Grayscale Ethereum Trust has decreased just as the aggregate futures daily volume. The last time Grayscale Ethereum Trust volume had reached a peak pushing Ethereum's price to the $3000 level. If the volume stays below this level, the rally that starts will be a sustainable one.
Reason 3
![[resize output image]](https://im3.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-3-b5787feedbf4.png)
Ethereum's open interest has also dipped significantly, based on the above chart. As social volume is increasing consistently, ETH futures metrics signal a recovery from the price drop.
88%, ETH HODLers are profitable at the current price level; the current price might attract more traders from buying/ accumulating when the price was below $2500 level.
In the long-term, ETH's ROI will be consistently increasing. The accumulation through the dips points out the increase in the concentration of large HODLers. It also signals an increase in the inflow of investment in Ethereum.
Disclaimer: The author's views and opinions are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.
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