13 October 2026
Bitcoin Price Analysis: $81.5K ETF Cost Basis Holds Amid Significant Outflows
Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience by defending the $81,500 cost basis for U.S. spot ETF investors, even in the face of substantial outflows totaling $746 million over the past week. This includes a notable $681 million last week and an additional $65 million on Monday.
According to Glassnode, this $81,500 level represents the aggregate cost basis for ETF investors, marking a significant shift in market dynamics. Previously, this threshold acted as resistance, but it has now transitioned to a support level.
Institutional positioning is increasingly critical for Bitcoin's price trajectory. Vugar Usi Zade, CEO of MEXC, emphasized that the influx of institutional capital has established a stronger structural floor for Bitcoin. The $80,000 mark has become the average cost for positions held by spot ETFs, suggesting that further declines may attract buyers rather than incite panic.
However, should the $81,500 support fail, analysts are closely watching the $77,500 level as the next major support point. This level is seen as the true market mean if ETF withdrawals continue to outpace demand.
Despite the challenges posed by ETF outflows, Bitcoin's performance has outpaced broader liquidity trends, indicating that investor demand is becoming a more significant driver of price action. Nevertheless, Bitcoin remains sensitive to overall financial conditions, making liquidity an essential factor to monitor.
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